Explaining Climate Change with Baseball 🌎⚾

Climate Change is connected to every cause we care about. Here's how baseball can help us understand the science.

If you are still questioning whether climate change is real or not, let me begin by saying that I understand where you’re coming from.

The information on the topic is vast. A lot of people have a lot of opinions. Sometimes, it can be hard to know where to look or who to trust.

And it’s human nature not to want to believe our planet is failing or our species is doomed. Our natural instinct is to survive.

But I can guarantee that understanding climate change is vital to understanding any topic you care deeply about. Immigration. Border security. Education. The economy.

Understanding climate change really is the first step to being able to advocate for any of the causes you believe in.

Let’s take a peek at where we’re at:

This year, the 4th of July was recorded as the hottest day on Earth in over 125,000 years, according to data from the US National Center for Environmental Protection (source).

In Nature & Medicine, it was reported that there were over 62,000 heat-related deaths across Europe between May and September of 2022 and that this summer could be even deadlier (source).

As I’m writing this, my phone features headlines about people flinging themselves into the ocean as wildfires ravage Maui (source). As I’m hitting publish, nearly 100 people have lost their lives, and at least 1,000 people are still missing.

Go to any article about a natural disaster — flood, drought, hurricane, wildfire, earthquake, you name it — and it’s guaranteed that in the comment section you’ll find sentiments like this:

“Yes, well, we’ve always had floods, and we’ll continue to have floods!”

“The temperature has been going up and down for millions of years!”

“It was freezing cold when I was born in 1967, too!”

I’m sure you’ve seen these. They’ve maybe even made you feel relieved when you’ve seen them. Sure, we have less ice at the poles, but Brad has a chart that shows ice levels were low 3,000 years ago, too, so I’m going to breathe a sigh of relief.

Yes, history is full of patterns. And yes, throughout Earth’s history, it has been hot, cold, dry, flooded, and stormy over and over and over.

But if you’ll humor me for a few minutes…let’s try thinking about this like baseball. ⚾

Picture a young, promising athlete named Billy Baseball. He enters the scene and is drafted to a Major League Baseball Team. Let’s say the Minnesota Twins, just for fun!

Billy begins his 10-year career in 1990. He’s a promising player! His home run production is great — he hits 25 home runs in 1990, 37 in 1991, 40 in 1992, and in 1993, he goes up to 47 home runs in a single season! Stats early in his career look like this:

Then, something changes. Billy Baseball starts taking steroids. His home run production increased, and in 1994 he hits 66 home runs! 47 in 1995, 60 in 1996, and then in 1997, he really shocks his fans with 68 home runs for the season!

After suspicion from the league, Billy stops taking steroids. And the next year, his stats return back to roughly the range they were in before: 45 home runs in 1998, 25 in 1999, and he ends his career in 2000 with 30 home runs. His final career stats look like this:

The stats prove Billy Baseball could hit home runs before he ever started “juicing.” But with steroids, his home run production increased dramatically. Just like the Earth had ups, downs, and disasters before climate change.

Some of his hits from 1994-1997 would have occurred whether he juiced or not, but surely some of them are directly related to the juicing. Just like the Earth has ups, downs, and disasters with climate change, some of which are more frequent or extreme.

When someone says, “Oh, the earth has always been hot and cold!” they are looking at the numbers and saying, “This guy has always been hitting home runs!” while ignoring the very obvious jump in his performance during that four-year period of juicing when his home run production doubled.

But more than just seeing a chart of his home run stats, let’s say that a majority of the world’s doctors specializing in steroid use got together and conducted decades of research on Billy. They had blood samples that proved steroids were present. They did MRI’s that showed permanent damage to his brain or heart as a result of steroid use. They even ran tests on his hair and could prove steroid use spanning that four-year period when his home runs increased.

We have all that — and more, when it comes to proving climate change.

Yes, the Earth has always had ups and downs. Yes, it will continue to have ups and downs. But scientists know, beyond a doubt, that the earth is “juiced” by fossil fuels and that this “juicing” is causing a climate catastrophe that we might not be able to recover from.

Let’s take the opening line from this article: “This year, the 4th of July was recorded as the hottest day on Earth in over 125,000 years, according to data from the US National Centers for Environmental Protection (source).”

Below that article, there was a comment from a man named Eric that said, “So that means 125,000 years ago, there was also a day this hot? What’s changing?”

That’s the baseball equivalent of saying, “Yeah, Billy hit 47 home runs in 1993 and also in 1995. Obviously, he wasn’t on steroids.”

This completely ignores the fact that his 47 home runs in 1995 were sandwiched by 66 home runs in 1994 and 60 in 1996.

Just like July 3rd, 2023 was the hottest day in 125,000 years…until July 4th arrived and broke that record.

Two of the hottest days in 125,000 years were on subsequent days in July 2023. That is…not normal. That’s Climate Change.

Now, let’s consider the tragedy we are watching unfold in Maui. Wildfires are not uncommon throughout Earth’s history, and a wildfire can be a natural way for a forest to regenerate.

But the wildfire in Maui was combined with extremely dry conditions on land, along with hurricane conditions at sea. That resulted in a catastrophe that allows a fire to spread incredibly fast, decimating everything in its path.

When firefighters fought to put out the blaze, the hydrants ran dry. The water system in Lahaina relies on both surface water and groundwater — resources that have been strained by persistent drought in recent years (source).

You can see how multiple factors combined to create a tragedy.

And we’ll see more of them.

It’s not just that it’s hot AF. It’s that it’s hot AF more frequently.

And it’s not just cold. It’s cold more frequently.

Storms and floods are more frequent and more dangerous.

Wildfires are more common and, due to severe dryness or high wind, harder to extinguish.

Scientists know without a doubt that we are having more frequent and more intense ups, downs, and disasters because of climate change.

Just like a promising athlete taking steroids suddenly has far more home runs because of steroids.

The prevalence of him having good and bad games and occasionally hitting home runs before steroids isn’t proof that the steroids are a hoax.

Just like the prevalence of the earth being hot, cold, wet, or dry before climate change isn’t proof that climate change is a hoax.

So yes, we can contend that not EVERY storm, flood, drought, or severe wildfire is the fault of climate change, but the increased frequency and intensity CAN be directly connected to climate change.

I’ll leave you with another of my favorite mindset shifts when it comes to climate change: what would be the harm in assuming it is real? What is the harm in assuming it is fake?

The harm in assuming it is fake is that we destroy the environment, live several decades of famine, fight wars over dwindling resources, and ultimately perish as a species.

The harm in assuming it’s real is that we might end up with a cleaner, healthier planet for future generations.

My vote is that we leave this place better than we found it.

Always here for you as you explore this topic! The next time you find yourself doubting what climate scientists are saying, ask yourself:

• Where does my belief that climate change isn’t real come from? Should I trust that source?

• Does my source of information have ulterior motives or financial incentives for wanting me to agree with them?

• Am I trained to read and assess this data? Or should I rely on someone with training and experience handling this type of data?

Credit: I first heard this explanation for climate change from Dr. Michael Osterholm on episode #135 of The Osterholm Update. Dr. Osterholm is the head of CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Prevention) at the University of Minnesota. He cites former Minneapolis newscaster Don Shelby for the inspiration.